n=18.2K
Day-7 CR review of a 'winning' push variant
Panel CTR beat control by 23%. Day-7 CR underperformed by 0.04pp. p=0.04, Q3 2024.
Case studies
Push campaign post-mortems with the numbers attached
A selection of campaigns and monetization stories where I (or a client) had the panel access to publish the full diagnostic. Every case below carries vertical, GEO, time window, and the number that matters.
Each case below reports vertical, GEO cohort, time window, and the number that decides the outcome. Cases without sample size or significance threshold don't get published — that's the test I apply to my own work too.
n=12.4M
The frequency-cap test that ended the cap-of-1 narrative
Going 5/day → 3/day improved CR by 0.04pp. 3/day → 1/day improved CR by 0.02pp at 4x the impression cost. Q1 2024.
4.8% CR
The bot publisher with the suspiciously flat variance
14 days of 4.8% CR, day-to-day variance under 1%. Real human behaviour has variance. Suspended on day 15.
n=4.2M
Browser-first targeting outperforms GEO-first
Chrome desktop converted at 1.4–1.8x Edge desktop, holding GEO and vertical constant. Q3 2024.
200 conv.
The Smart CPA conversion floor, verified
Smart CPA pre-200 conv: CPA volatility ±48%. Post-200 conv: ±12%. Matches Google's published threshold.
n=8.4M
In-page push vs classic push, day-7 adjusted
In-page CTR ran 1.2–2.8x classic. Day-7 CR ran 0.6–0.9x classic. Full-funnel within plus/minus 10%.
$0.18–0.65
CPM benchmarks, parallel-network test
BR/MX/CO/AR push iGaming. Tier-1 ran $1.20–3.40. Q4 lift added 28–42%. 2024 data.
17%
Share of conversions landing days 8–30
24-hour attribution window captured roughly 60% of what a 30-day window would. Why day-7 minimum matters.
$200K
The campaign I killed, and why
Week-three audience-fatigue collapse. n=12.4M, p less than 0.01. The meeting that ended my Mobidea tenure.
Start here
Your first push impression is one signup away
Advertisers launch the first campaign in under 10 minutes. Publishers see the first eCPM data the same day. The day-7 cohort takes — predictably — seven days.